Friday, December 6, 2013

Personal outlook on deflationary currency

A big argument against deflationary currency is that people will horde it and not spend it because it will be worth more tomorrow and spending means they lose out.  A great counter argument is that people will start to value durable products over disposable products which would be good for society, but I wanted to counter the idea of hoarding versus spending with inflationary currency head on.

I am saving for retirement.  I am a natural saver, I am frugal and disciplined, and I am barely doing good enough although compared to my peers I am a superstar.  People like to put thing into perspective in terms of today's money.  I need to save $1.5 million to retire how I would like to.  If they are retiring in 30-40 years what they will find out is they really need $4 million to retire how they are imagining because of the erosion of the value of their dollar.  At current rates I am not going to meet that inflated goal which means that I have to save more.  That's right, inflating currency means I cannot spend if I want a reasonable self reliant retirement.  If you want to keep up with inflation you have to put your nest egg at risk in investments.

Now if I have a deflationary currency I start feeling richer as my currency buys more.  It is pretty well known that the way to get people to shop is to make them feel richer.  They don't have to be richer, they only have to feel it.  This is was a major source of fallout in the sub-prime market.  A lot of people were getting cheap money and felt richer without actually being richer.  When that reversed, people stopped buying things even though inflation was still present.

Another argument I would like to address is that with a deflationary currency you don't risk it by investing in the future.  I would address this by saying this one has me stumped.  If I put myself in the mindset of having a deflationary currency I really don't want to invest.  Holding the currency is investment enough.  I am not sure that I see a way around this one and I think it is a real problem.  It would be great if someone could explain this one to me because I believe in the power of crowd funding innovation and unseating the stodgy old dogs of yesterday.

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