People talk about bitcoin price, don't believe them

Everyone's favorite topic when it comes to bitcoin is price.  I understand why, the price is exceptional, but it focuses attention on the wrong things and gives voice to the wrong people, namely the speculators.  It also gives a metric to judge the success of Bitcoin that really is ancillary at this point.

But you cannot escape the debate and it is important to note because speculation can end up helping and/or hurting Bitcoin.  It is also inevitable that speculation will enter a market where value is important.  So I wanted to give my opinion on price speculation and tell you what to look out for when listening to other people.  I believe that in 4 years the price of a bitcoin will be around $10,000.  I base this on adoption rate the value of the trade market for Bitcoin as a protocol.  When you are trading something of value back and forth, the value of the medium has to expand to match what it is being traded for.  I believe the market will have to expand to $200 billion for what is being traded in Bitcoin in this time.

The big question on people's lips right now is $1000, is that a bubble?  Every time I have tried to predict a bubble I have been incredibly wrong.  I told my father in March that I did not understand why a bitcoin was $45 and he should not buy in at that price.  Bitcoin has not seen $45 since that time.  There was a bubble to $250 and an over correction down to $65 but $45 was not seen.  So that is part of my opinion on how to look at other people's opinions.  They do not know.  If they are correct it is on accident.  Don't let anyone tell you they knew what was going to happen after the fact unless they were the ones that manipulated the market.  Anyone who talks without humility and absolutely knows what is going to happen is full of crap.  Anyone who uses words like "obviously" and "fool" and other bullying manipulative language and does not back it up with math is not worth listening to.

People worth listening to will tell you how they came to their conclusion so you can decide whether you believe the data they used to reach that conclusion.  Also, short term predictions should never be believed because data really only works in the long term.